The Battle of the Giants: Wisconsin vs. Kentucky Preview

This coming weekend has “History” written all over it. In one corner, we have the undefeated, defensive juggernaut, the pride of the SEC, a team from the top tier of college basketball: the Kentucky Wildcats. In the other corner, we have the contender, the unbelievably offensively efficient machine, the up-and-coming boys in red, the blue-collar team from the Big Ten: the Wisconsin Badgers. Forget the fact that this is a rematch of last year’s Final Four game; focus on what we have in front of us right now. Kentucky is attempting to complete the first ever 40-0 men’s college basketball season, and the first undefeated season since Bob Knight’s 1976 Indiana Hoosiers. Wisconsin is looking to capture college basketball glory by not only knocking off Kentucky, but also by capturing their first college basketball title since 1941. This game could easily be the best one of the entire tournament. The best offensive team in the country against the best defensive team in the country. The school that prides itself on four-year players against the school that cranks out one-and-done NBA players at a rate never seen before. The Grateful Red vs. Big Blue Nation. We are in for one hell of a game.

In my honest opinion, I think that if you are not a member of the Big Blue Nation, there is no way you cheer for Kentucky in this match-up. They are the villain in this story. According to many college basketball fans, Kentucky and John Calipari represent everything that is wrong with college basketball. Under Calipari, Kentucky has turned into a stepping-stone to the NBA. If you are a 5 star recruit with a bright future playing basketball, you should go to Kentucky. Calipari will help you achieve your NBA dreams, and all he asks for is one year of your time, and your dedication to his program.

On the flip side, you have the underdog (Vegas has Kentucky at -5) in Wisconsin. They are not favored to win this game, but in the minds of many, Wisconsin is one of the few teams in the country that has a style of play that can beat Kentucky. Wisconsin is the polar opposite of Kentucky. If you want to go to the NBA, Wisconsin is not your first choice. Wisconsin doesn’t bring in the High School All-Americans. Wisconsin brings in players that can contribute to Bo Ryan’s system for four years; they bring in players that “play the game the right way”. How could a team that doesn’t have a single McDonald’s All-American compete with a team that has nine? How could this team even hope of knocking off the giants? The answer? Make them play your game.Screen Shot 2015-04-01 at 11.47.52 AM

 

Bronson Koenig said it best.

            As long as Bo Ryan has been the coach of the Wisconsin Badgers, a few things have always held true for the team. First and foremost, the Badgers take care of the ball. They treat the basketball like it is the most prized possession one could ever own. They value every possession, and if you are going to get the ball back, they make you earn it. Second, the Badgers make sure that they get to the free-throw line, and they make sure that you pay for putting them there. Every time you watch a televised Wisconsin game, you are almost guaranteed to hear the whole, “Wisconsin’s goal is to make more free-throws than the other team attempts” spiel. Free-throws should be easy points to collect, and the Badgers want to get as many freebies as possible. The final thing that the Badgers excel at is that they make you play their style of basketball. In recent years, Wisconsin has started to pick up the offensive tempo, but this is a team that has thrived on playing games where the scoring is in the 50s or 60s. Wisconsin is not going to force up bad shots. They will be patient on offense, and they will take shots that they know they have a good chance of making. They want to slow you down to their pace and drag you into playing a dog-fight of a game.

To beat Kentucky, a team has to do three things exceptionally well: take care of the ball, shoot the 3 at a high percentage, and crash the glass hard on both offense and defense. If Wisconsin is going to win this game, they are going to have to have eight or less turnovers. You cannot allow Kentucky to get steals and easy transition buckets. You have to value every single possession that you get, and make them exhaust their energy on the defensive end. This is a daunting task, but if any team can do it, I think it is Wisconsin.

If Wisconsin is going to beat Kentucky, they are going to have to knock down the three at a consistent rate. Let’s be honest: the second half three point shooting against Arizona was an anomaly. It would be ridiculous to expect Wisconsin to be THAT accurate (10-12 in the second half) from deep again. What they do need to do though is knock down open threes to keep Kentucky on their toes. Kentucky is a freakishly long and athletic team, and it is incredibly hard to score against them on the inside. With Wisconsin’s ability to knock down shots from the perimeter, they should be able to stretch Kentucky’s defense and make the defensive rotations that much more difficult. In creating these defensive rotations, it should lead to open 3s and open driving lanes for players to attack the rim. When they do attack the rim though, they can’t be timid; they have to go in with the intent of finishing through contact and drawing fouls.

Finally, Wisconsin must try to corral every single missed shot from both Kentucky and themselves. Kentucky has shown extreme vulnerability when it comes to keeping opponents off of the offensive glass. Kentucky loves to block shots, and their bigs sell out on every single play going for blocks, which can lead to easy putbacks. Zach Auguste of Notre Dame exploited Kentucky the entire game on getting easy putbacks, strictly because he wasn’t getting boxed out. The little bunny shots will be there against Kentucky as long as you put forth the effort to track them down. On the other end of the court, Wisconsin needs to be aggressive chasing down every defensive rebound and limiting Kentucky’s second chance points. As previously stated, Kentucky is loaded with length and athleticism, and you need to keep them from getting easy points. As long as you put a body on them, Kentucky’s bigs are not that aggressive when chasing rebounds. When they have a free run at the hoop though, they will do everything that they can to dunk all over you. Limiting second chance points is key in beating any team, but it is especially important to limit Kentucky strictly because their length makes cleaning up those second chances that much easier.

I really wish that beating Kentucky was as easy as executing those three tasks stated above. Notre Dame did exceptionally well in all three of those areas on Saturday night, but Kentucky still found a way to walk away with a victory. Even if you do all of the things necessary to beat Kentucky, you still might not beat them. They have enough talent to overcome adversity. They play good enough defense that they can overcome their offensive deficiencies. They have one of the best coaches in the business and one of the deepest and best rosters in the entire country. They didn’t get to 38-0 by accident. You’d be stupid to not bet on Kentucky to win it all. They’ve made it this far, there is no reason that they shouldn’t win two more.

For all of the reasons that you should believe in Kentucky, you can find reasons to believe in Wisconsin as well. Frank Kaminsky is the best offensive talent in the country, and he can hurt you from the inside or outside. Sam Dekker has arguably been the best player in the entire tournament, and if he continues his hot streak, it will be extremely difficult for Kentucky to stop both him and Kaminsky. Every single player in the Badgers’ rotation can hurt you from inside or from three. Wisconsin does not shoot themselves in the foot; they make you beat them. They are not just going to hand this game over to Kentucky. Kentucky is going to have to earn this win. An argument can be made for either team, and you can find a counter-argument for the other team as well.

Last week, I was an absolute wreck during both the UNC and Arizona game. I was so incredibly nervous that I couldn’t sit still. Every time we fell behind I was convinced that we were going to lose. Every time we hit a huge shot, I  in the air yelling with joy. That’s the beauty of March Madness, though. It can turn even the most confident, powerful people into a nervous wreck. Saturday night will be no different. There will be times when members of each fan base will cover their eyes because they are too nervous to even watch, and they will scream with delight when their team makes a fantastic, game-changing plan. When I made my bracket two plus weeks ago, I picked Wisconsin over Kentucky in this game. Even though the rest of my bracket has been an absolute disaster, I’m not faltering on this pick. Wisconsin goes into the final minute up by two, stops Kentucky, and knocks down some free throws in the closing seconds to clinch the game. Wisconsin over Kentucky, 58-54. On Wisconsin.

Hopefully every Badger fan in the country will being celebrating on Saturday.