Today is by far one of the best days of the entire year. Meaningful basketball games tip off at about 11:30 in the morning, and they continue almost all the way until midnight. And then, it starts all over again on Friday. I love March Madness.
There are so many huge questions surrounding this year’s tournament, the most common one revolving around Kentucky’s pursuit of perfection. While that’s all fine and dandy, my focus is on other things. I’m not saying I don’t care to see what happens with Kentucky, because trust me, I do care. In my bracket, I have them sitting at 38-0 when they meet up the Wisconsin Badgers in the Final Four. I don’t think I need to tell you what I have happen in that game. My focus is elsewhere, and I want to take a look at some of the burning questions that I have as we are just hours away from tip-off.
1. What double-digit seed is the team that will make the Sweet 16 this year, or maybe even the Elite 8?
It’s definitely a pick that a lot of people are making, and this one could very easily go wrong, but I really like Texas to knock off both Butler and Notre Dame. Think about this: In early December, Texas was ranked sixth in the country when they travelled to Lexington to face Kentucky. In this game, Texas was playing without their starting point guard, and arguably most valuable player, Isaiah Taylor. Texas was able to keep it close for much of the game, but with their floor general out of the game, they ended up losing by 12.
From there, Texas’s season crumbled. Despite all the talent, size, and athleticism on this team, they just couldn’t put it together. Most basketball pundits are quick to point their finger at Rick Barnes, the coach of the Longhorns who is seemingly a bumbling idiot who can’t figure out a way to close out a game or create any chemistry on this team. The real question surrounding this team is whether or not they can overcome Barnes’s apparent incompetence and rally together to win a few games.
The reason I really like Texas is because of two major factors. First and foremost, their core group of players have experience in March. Last year, the Horns knocked off Arizona State on a last second shot to advance to the round of 32 where they faced Michigan. They may have lost this game against Michigan, but they gained valuable experience. The second reason I really love Texas? Defense. Defense. Defense. With the long arms of Cameron Ridley, Myles Turner, and Prince Ibeh patrolling the paint, every shot is contested or swatted away. Texas has the best two-point defense in the entire country, with opponents really struggling to score against them inside the arc. Three point shooting comes and goes, so the real question facing is Texas is can they defend without fouling, and will Butler and Notre Dame be cold from three when they play? Both Butler and Notre Dame struggle on the defensive end of the floor, so it really comes down to whether or not Texas is able to put the ball in the hoop.
2. What mid-major school has the best chance of making the Final Four?
Two teams come to mind here when looking at this question. My first thought immediately went to Wichita State. They have a good match-up with Indiana in the first round, who really does live and die by the three. In the second round, they will likely face Kansas, who I have absolutely zero faith in for multiple reasons. From there they could likely face Notre Dame, or in my bracket, Texas, and in either case, I think they could pull it off. Unfortunately, their run ends there though, as they match up with Kentucky in the Elite 8. I’m giving the Shockers zero chance in that game. As much as I love Ron Baker, I’m going to have to bounce him and the rest of his team at this point.
With Wichita State eliminated, that really only leaves one team in my mind that can compete for a Final Four spot, and that team is Gonzaga. I’m going to get a lot of grief for this, but hear me out. I have always hated Gonzaga in the past. I have never had any faith in them as a team. I’m pretty sure I still don’t. This year’s team though is very different for a lot of reasons, and I think that this gives them a huge advantage over past Gonzaga teams.
The first reason that I really like Gonzaga to move into the Final Four is that they have all sorts of seniors and juniors leading this team. While none of these players have experienced true March success, they have faced all sorts of various situations in the past. Outside of Domantas Sabonis, the entire rotation for Gonzaga is made up of upperclassmen. That’s a recipe for March success.
Another reason that I really like this team? Kevin Pangos. Ever since I watched him playing for the Zags as a freshman, I’ve always really enjoyed his game. This year is no different. While he is no longer shouldering as much of the scoring load, he is a super intelligent, and crafty point guard. He picks his spots, makes sure he gets his teammates involved, and overall plays very intelligent basketball. When he needs to, he steps up and scores. A super successful and veteran point guard is a reason to really like Gonzaga.
A match up with Iowa State really worries me for Gonzaga, as does a potential match up with Duke, but I think this team is capable of knocking off both of these teams. Kyle Wiltjer and Przemek Karnowski are both absolute studs, and very unique offensive weapons that can drastically alter a game. These two complement Kevin Pangos in a way that a player like Kelly Olynyk never did. I never thought I’d say this, but I have Gonzaga going to the Final Four.
3. Which one of the college basketball blue bloods is going to be the first team bounced from the tournament?
For some reason, I didn’t find this question all too difficult. Thinking of teams like Kentucky, Duke, North Carolina, Kansas, Arizona, and any other program you want to consider a “blue blood”, one team popped in my mind. Sorry, Rock Chalk, Jayhawk.
I have North Carolina losing in the second round to Arkansas, but , I really don’t think anyone will be all that surprised if that does happen. I also wouldn’t be surprised if Harvard knocks them off in the first round. UNC is just so unpredictable this year, I’m not even counting them for this.
Kansas though, they are a prime candidate. Kansas has won 11 straight Regular Season Titles in the Big 12. That number is absolutely freaking ridiculous. I’m still confused as to how they managed to pull that off this year, because in my mind, Kansas sucked. Maybe that’s because all I can think of is their shellacking against Kentucky.
Here’s why I think Kansas is going to get bounced early. In round two, I see Kansas running into Wichita State, and the battle for Kansas commences. Wichita State has been trying to get Kansas on their schedule for years, but the Jayhawks always turn them down. If they played during the regular season, Kansas would have everything to lose, and Wichita State would have everything to gain. The last thing the Jayhawks want is to lose their claim over basketball in the state of Kansas for a year, so why schedule Wichita State?
Flashback one year. In the first round, we had THEE Ohio State University matched up with Dayton, a situation almost exactly identical to the one mentioned above. What happens? Dayton knocks off the Buckeyes in the battle for Ohio supremacy, and they advance all the way to the Elite 8. I have a feeling that history is going to repeat itself this year.
Kansas has got a lot of solid players, namely Frank Mason, Perry Ellis, and Kelly Oubre. Ellis is battling an injured knee, and it will be interesting to see how impactful he will end up being. Oubre is a very special freshman talent, but I have a gut feeling he will underperform in this matchup. That leaves Mason, who, as talented as he is, cannot carry this team to a victory. Additionally, Cliff Alexander likely will not be eligible to play yet as he is currently under NCAA investigation. Without him, Kansas’s front line is seriously depleted. The Shockers are going to shock the state of Kansas. After the game, Wichita State fans will be heard screaming Shock Chalk, Jayhawk.
4. What team is going to be the biggest surprise?
I picked my entire bracket on some crazy whims this year. Everyone does it, but I was doing everything I could to make my bracket incredibly unique from everyone else. With that said, my biggest surprise team this year is Utah. Utah was a team ranked in the top ten for a good amount of the season, and with good reason. With an offense and defense that are both ranked in the top twenty in the nation, you have a formula for March success. Lots of people have Utah getting upset in the first round, which is why I think this team is going to be a big surprise.
Delon Wright is one of my favorite players in the country to watch. The senior point guard is by far the best weapon that the Utes have. He is their do-it-all offensive lynch pin. I feel that he is primed and ready for a big run. My gut is telling me that this is Delon Wright’s time to shine. He is this year’s Kemba Walker, or Shabazz Napier. He is going to take this tournament by storm.
Utah has only one won one big game all year, and that was against Wichita State back in December when the Shockers were ranked eighth in the country. They lost to San Diego State, they lost to Kansas, and they lost to Arizona twice; the only five ranked opponents that they player all year. Something has to give though. They are bound to come up with a big victory or two. Stephen F. Austin is an intriguing first round matchup, but the Lumberjacks are a very small team compared to Utah. It will be close, but I see Utah outlasting the Lumberjacks. A potential second round game with Georgetown is a game that I can see Utah running away with strictly because Georgetown has been absolutely awful in the tournament in recent years.
The big win is going to come against Duke in the Sweet 16. With an athletic 7-foot center in Jakob Poeltl, the Utes have a chance to slow down Jahlil Okafor. On offense, Delon Wright is going to shred the Duke defense and create easy scoring chances at the rim. It’s going to come down to the wire, maybe even end on a buzzer-beater, but the Utes are going to crush Duke’s March dreams. I love my Blue Devils, but I got them with a Sweet 16 exit.
Unfortunately, the Utes run ends in the Elite 8 when they match up with a tough Gonzaga team. After getting absolutely battered having to slow down Jahlil Okafor, Poeltl will not have a chance at stopping Karnowski and Sabonis. Delon Wright will try to channel his inner Cardiac Kemba, but to no avail. The Utes are going home with three tournament wins, something that no one was expecting.
5. Who is this year’s biggest break out player?
Last year, Frank Kaminsky made a name for himself after he helped carry Wisconsin to the Final Four. Shabazz Napier made sure everyone knew who he was after he put UConn on his back and carried them to the National Championship. So who is this year’s Frank or Shabazz?
I know that I just said Delon Wright is going to absolutely go off in the tournament. He is already an established talent though, a surefire first round NBA pick. Frank Kaminsky might be the most recognizable player for the Wisconsin Badgers, and he’s going to have a huge part in them potentially winning a National Championship. With that said though, this year’s breakout player is going to be Bronson Koenig, the starting point guard for the ambitious Badgers.
After Traevon Jackson suffered a broken foot against Rutgers in January, Koenig was handed the keys to the Wisconsin offense. Not only did he put the keys in the ignition and start up the car, he started it up, peeled out off the curb, and took off down the road as fast as he could go. He excelled the minute he was handed the starting job, and he only improved as the year went on. On the biggest stage of the season, Koenig proved his value to the team. After dropping 19 points against Purdue in the Big Ten Tournament semi-final, Koenig had 1 point with 10 minutes to go in the Big Ten Championship and Wisconsin facing an uphill battle against Michigan State. His final point total? 18. Koenig continued to hit dagger three, after dagger three. He took care of the ball just like you’d expect of a Bo Ryan point guard, but he still was creating opportunities for his teammates with his one-on-one playmaking ability. Bronson Koenig is what you’ve always wanted from a Bo Ryan, but something you never expected to get.
The stage is set for Koenig to do something special. He is not the most recognizable face for the Badgers. He is not the player that is expected to carry the Badgers to a National Title. He is fourth on the team in scoring at just over 8 points a game. Watch out for him though. When he’s got the ball in his hands, he’s going to create something. Look for Koenig to make some critical plays against Kentucky in the Final Four that are key in knocking off the Wildcats, and expect a nearly flawless game from him in the National Championship. Wisconsin Badgers, National Champions.
I can’t wait until next weekend when I look back at all of my predictions and realize how wrong I was. I’d like to think that I know what’s going to happen, but I truly am clueless. This has been by far the most difficult bracket that I’ve ever had to fill out, and I’m only hoping that I might strike gold. Happy March Madness everyone! Enjoy it while you can, because I think we are in for a doozy.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J91hh1n9eAU
Jim Marose is an amateur, wannabe bracketologist. To follow along with his bracket, and see how wrong he was in answering his five questions, follow him on Twitter @jmarose47. Happy March Madness, everyone!
